Data Entry: Please note that the research database will be replaced by UNIverse by the end of October 2023. Please enter your data into the system https://universe-intern.unibas.ch. Thanks
On the influence of temporal change on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps
Journal
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume
9
Number
4
Pages / Article-Number
1495-1507
Keywords
logistic regression, land use change, GIS, alpine, multivariate statistical analysis
Abstract
The consideration of non-stationary landslide causal factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still problematic. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. In this case study in the Central Swiss Alps, we aim to evaluate the effect of dynamic change of landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps. Logistic regression models were produced for two points in time, 1959 and 2000. Both models could correctly classify >70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of the change of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new landslides occurring after 2000. We believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to the susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions.
