Land use change in the Urseren Valley, Kanto Uri, Switzerland, has led to an encroachment of bushes on many formerly alpine grazing areas. The encroachment is subject to a controversial debate on the management and esthetics of the Urseren landscape. Furthermore, the effects of the bushes on surface processes, for example soil erosion, mass wasting and runoff, is unclear. In this project, the history of shrub encroachment and the controlling factors for the spread of the shrubs, including both topography and agricultural policy are examined. Aim is to develop a model for past and potential future shrub encroachment. The model uses a GIS-based analysis of the valley topography and parameters derived from changing demands for grazing land quality during the last 60 years.