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Explorative assessment of the temperature-mortality association to support health-based heat-warning thresholds: a national case-crossover study in Switzerland
JournalArticle (Originalarbeit in einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift)
 
ID 4665585
Author(s) Ragettli, M. S.; Saucy, A.; Flückiger, B.; Vienneau, D.; de Hoogh, K.; Vicedo Cabrero, A. M.; Schindler, C.; Röösli, M.
Author(s) at UniBasel Ragettli, Martina
Saucy, Apolline
Flückiger, Benjamin
Vienneau, Danielle
de Hoogh, Kees
Schindler, Christian
Röösli, Martin
Year 2023
Title Explorative assessment of the temperature-mortality association to support health-based heat-warning thresholds: a national case-crossover study in Switzerland
Journal Int J Environ Res Public Health
Volume 20
Number 6
Pages / Article-Number 4958
Mesh terms Humans; Hot Temperature; Temperature; Cross-Over Studies; Switzerland, epidemiology; Seasons; Mortality
Abstract Defining health-based thresholds for effective heat warnings is crucial for climate change adaptation strategies. Translating the non-linear function between heat and health effects into an effective threshold for heat warnings to protect the population is a challenge. We present a systematic analysis of heat indicators in relation to mortality. We applied distributed lag non-linear models in an individual-level case-crossover design to assess the effects of heat on mortality in Switzerland during the warm season from 2003 to 2016 for three temperature metrics (daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature), and various threshold temperatures and heatwave definitions. Individual death records with information on residential address from the Swiss National Cohort were linked to high-resolution temperature estimates from 100 m resolution maps. Moderate (90th percentile) to extreme thresholds (99.5th percentile) of the three temperature metrics implied a significant increase in mortality (5 to 38%) in respect of the median warm-season temperature. Effects of the threshold temperatures on mortality were similar across the seven major regions in Switzerland. Heatwave duration did not modify the effect when considering delayed effects up to 7 days. This nationally representative study, accounting for small-scale exposure variability, suggests that the national heat-warning system should focus on heatwave intensity rather than duration. While a different heat-warning indicator may be appropriate in other countries, our evaluation framework is transferable to any country.
URL https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20064958
edoc-URL https://edoc.unibas.ch/94565/
Full Text on edoc Available
Digital Object Identifier DOI 10.3390/ijerph20064958
PubMed ID http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36981871
ISI-Number MEDLINE:36981871
Document type (ISI) Journal Article
 
   

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