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Inaccurate Politicians. Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries
JournalArticle (Originalarbeit in einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift)
 
ID 4650064
Author(s) Walgrave, Stefaan; Jansen, Arno; Sevenans, Julie; Soontjens, Karolin; Pilet, Jean-Benoit, Brack; Nathalie; Varone, Frédéric; Helfer, Luzia; Vliegenthart, Rens; van der Meer, Toni; Breunig, ChristianM Bailer, Stefanie, Sheffer, Lior; Loewen, Peter John
Author(s) at UniBasel Bailer, Stefanie
Year 2022
Title Inaccurate Politicians. Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries
Journal The Journal of Politics
Pages / Article-Number 1-20
Keywords political representation, public opinion, perceptual accuracy, responsiveness
Abstract

Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They not only misperceive the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

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29/03/2024