Data Entry: Please note that the research database will be replaced by UNIverse by the end of October 2023. Please enter your data into the system https://universe-intern.unibas.ch. Thanks
(Mis-)Predicted Subjective Well-Being Following Life Events
Journal
Journal of the European Economic Association
Volume
17
Number
1
Pages / Article-Number
245-283
Abstract
The correct prediction of how alternative states of the world affect our lives is a cornerstone of economics. We study how accurate people are in predicting their future well-being after facing major life events. Based on individual panel data, we compare people's life satisfaction forecasts reported in the first interview after a major life event with their actual evaluations five years later on. This is done after the individuals experience widowhood, unemployment, disability, marriage, separation, or divorce. We find systematic prediction errors that seem at least partly driven by unforeseen adaptation after the first four of these events.
