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Structural change in (economic) time series
Book Item (Buchkapitel, Lexikonartikel, jur. Kommentierung, Beiträge in Sammelbänden)
 
ID 4379124
Author(s) Kleiber, Christian
Author(s) at UniBasel Kleiber, Christian
Year 2018
Title Structural change in (economic) time series
Editor(s) Müller, Stefan C.; Plath, Peter J.; Radons, Günter; Fuchs, Armin
Book title Complexity and Synergetics
Publisher Springer
Place of publication Cham
Pages 275-288
ISSN/ISBN 978-3-319-64333-5 ; 978-3-319-64334-2
Keywords change point problem, segmentation, structural change, time series
Abstract

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.

URL https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64334-2_21
edoc-URL https://edoc.unibas.ch/61738/
Full Text on edoc No
Digital Object Identifier DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-64334-2_21
 
   

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25/04/2024