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Intelligible factors for the yield curve
JournalArticle (Originalarbeit in einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift)
 
ID 238487
Author(s) Lengwiler, Yvan; Lenz, Carlos
Author(s) at UniBasel Lengwiler, Yvan
Year 2010
Title Intelligible factors for the yield curve
Journal Journal of Econometrics
Volume 157
Number 2
Pages / Article-Number 481-491
Keywords Term structure of interest rates, Dynamic factor model, Vector autoregression, Monetary policy shocks
Abstract
We construct a factor model of the yield curve and specify time series processes for these factors, so that the innovations are mutually orthogonal. At the same time, the factors are such that they assume clear, intuitive interpretations. The resulting ”intelligible factors” should prove useful for investment professionals to discuss expectations about yield curves and the implied dynamics. Moreover, they allow us to distinguish announced changes of the monetary policy stance versus monetary policy surprises, which we find to be rare. We identify two such events, namely September 11, 2001, and the Fed reaction to the sub-prime crisis of 2007.
Publisher Elsevier
ISSN/ISBN 0304-4076
edoc-URL http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A5265550
Full Text on edoc No
Digital Object Identifier DOI 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.04.001
ISI-Number WOS:000280245200023
Document type (ISI) Article
 
   

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