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A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on the future expansion of trees and shrubs across a large Arctic region
JournalArticle (Originalarbeit in einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift)
ID 2117987
Author(s) Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemueller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Hoye, Toke T.; Kjaer, Erik D.; Koerner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian
Author(s) at UniBasel Körner, Christian
Randin, Christophe
Paulsen, Jens
Year 2013
Title A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on the future expansion of trees and shrubs across a large Arctic region
Journal Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Volume 368
Number 1624
Pages / Article-Number UNSP 20120479
Keywords Arctic, climatic niche modelling, climate change impact, disequilibrium, postglacial re-colonization, shrub expansion
Abstract Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.
Publisher Royal Society of London
ISSN/ISBN 0962-8436
Full Text on edoc No
Digital Object Identifier DOI 10.1098/rstb.2012.0479
ISI-Number WOS:000321565600002
Document type (ISI) Article

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