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Bayesian geostatistical modelling for mapping schistosomiasis transmission
JournalArticle (Originalarbeit in einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift)
 
ID 1195403
Author(s) Vounatsou, P.; Raso, G.; Tanner, M.; N'Goran, E. K.; Utzinger, J.
Author(s) at UniBasel Tanner, Marcel
Vounatsou, Penelope
Utzinger, Jürg
Raso, Giovanna
Year 2009
Title Bayesian geostatistical modelling for mapping schistosomiasis transmission
Journal Parasitology
Volume 136
Number 13
Pages / Article-Number 1695-705
Keywords Schistosomiasis, Schistosoma mansoni, Bayesian geostatistics, non-stationarity, overdispersion, zero-inflated model, infection intensity, Cote d'Ivoire
Mesh terms Adolescent; Animals; Bayes Theorem; Child; Cote d'Ivoire, epidemiology; Female; Geographic Information Systems; Humans; Male; Models, Biological; Regression Analysis; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Factors; Schistosomiasis, transmission; Socioeconomic Factors
Abstract Progress has been made in mapping and predicting the risk of schistosomiasis using Bayesian geostatistical inference. Applications primarily focused on risk profiling of prevalence rather than infection intensity, although the latter is particularly important for morbidity control. In this review, the underlying assumptions used in a study mapping Schistosoma mansoni infection intensity in East Africa are examined. We argue that the assumption of stationarity needs to be relaxed, and that the negative binomial assumption might result in misleading inference because of a high number of excess zeros (individuals without an infection). We developed a Bayesian geostatistical zero-inflated (ZI) regression model that assumes a non-stationary spatial process. Our model is validated with a high-quality georeferenced database from western Cote d'Ivoire, consisting of demographic, environmental, parasitological and socio-economic data. Nearly 40% of the 3818 participating schoolchildren were infected with S. mansoni, and the mean egg count among infected children was 162 eggs per gram of stool (EPG), ranging between 24 and 6768 EPG. Compared to a negative binomial and ZI Poisson and negative binomial models, the Bayesian non-stationary ZI negative binomial model showed a better fit to the data. We conclude that geostatistical ZI models produce more accurate maps of helminth infection intensity than the spatial negative binomial ones
Publisher Cambridge University Press
ISSN/ISBN 0031-1820 ; 1469-8161
edoc-URL http://edoc.unibas.ch/dok/A5843152
Full Text on edoc No
Digital Object Identifier DOI 10.1017/S003118200900599X
PubMed ID http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19490724
ISI-Number WOS:000272368200004
Document type (ISI) Journal Article
 
   

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